A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
