Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
